We Predict Which New Release Wins The Weekend

A romantic comedy opens during school holidays and gets absolutely steamrolled at the box office. That one result kicks off a bigger conversation we all feel as moviegoers but rarely name out loud: release timing can matter as much as the movie itself. I’m joined by cinema insider Ross Churchell as we unpack how school-holiday crowds reshape programming, why adults and retirees “rediscover” the cinema right after the kids go back to school, and what that awkward in-between period means for New Zealand cinemas trying to keep seats filled.

Then we jump to what’s next on the big screen, starting with Exit 8, a Japanese psychological thriller based on a hit video game. A man trapped in a sterile subway loop has to spot tiny anomalies and follow strict rules to escape, and the concept sounds minimal until you realize how tense that can get. If you like high-concept thrillers, video game movies, or stories built around repetition and dread, this one is worth a trailer watch.

We also dig into the Michael Jackson biopic, talk about the music, the mythology, and what fan reactions can signal when critic scores lag behind. And we put real numbers on the line with our opening-week box office predictions for both Michael and the massive nostalgia play The Devil Wears Prada 2, including why the sequel could be a true runaway hit. If you enjoy movie news, box office predictions, and upcoming movies, hit play, subscribe, and share the show with a film friend, then leave us a review and tell us which opening weekend you think wins?

Book your tickets to the movies at Cathay Cinemas Kerikeri here  -   or at Lido Cinema Hamilton here!

Transcript

Welcome And Holiday Cinema Reality

SPEAKER_00 0:01

Eat, sleep, movie, repeat, repeat. A podcast on all things movies with Brent Harbour and industry insider Ross Churchell.

SPEAKER_01 0:11

G'day Ross, you've survived the school holidays. Oh, by the skin of my teeth, Brent, by the skin of my teeth.

SPEAKER_02 0:16

But it was good. It was a good school holiday. Yeah, look, it wasn't too bad. It wasn't as strong as the previous year. Of course, we had Minecraft last year, which was just a huge film uh worldwide. So um it wasn't as strong as Minecraft, but it wasn't terrible, you know.

SPEAKER_01 0:31

It was good. It was good. Oh, that's good. And I suppose yeah, you you don't get the post-holiday blues, do you, in the cinema industry?

SPEAKER_02 0:37

Oh, look, we all get the post-holiday blues, my friend. Um I think like parents, you know, parents have a big sigh of relief the kids are gone. We're like, oh, the kids are gone. Come on, kids, come back. But um, you know, this is where we have that little transition between the children going back to school and you know, retirees and adults who have been keeping away from the place. This is that where they slowly start to come back in and rediscover stuff. So you've always got to keep something fresh that's coming in and uh, you know, keeping them entertained as well.

SPEAKER_01 1:08

Alrighty. Well, let's get into it.

Box Office Prediction Reality Check

SPEAKER_02 1:10

Absolutely. Okay, welcome folks to Eat Sleep Movie Repeat. Again, we're repeating it again, brought to you by Cafe Cinemas Carrie Carrie and Leto Cinemas Hamilton, your home of fine film from around the world. Okay, look, the show's just about new movies heading your way, uh, as well as something you might like to check out in the next couple of weeks. But first, as we always do, Brent, as we always do, we're gonna reconcile our box office prediction from last week. So uh let's see, what are we talking about? Oh, it was You Me and Tuscany, starring the Little Mermaid's Hallie Bailey and Bridgerton's Rejet John Page. Alrighty, Brent.

SPEAKER_01 1:45

I I haven't looked at anything, I have no idea how it went, how much it made. It was one of those ones we weren't too sure about.

SPEAKER_02 1:52

Yeah, well, it's it's definitely that thing when you release a film in the holidays, and to be fair, this is a romantic comedy releasing in April. This is the kind of film um alongside movies like Soul and Meo that should have absolutely released in uh Valentine's Week. They would have probably been both a lot stronger. Uh bit of foreshadowing there, as they say in the biz. Um, but Brad, look, you thought the film would do 225 grand in its opening week. I was very concerned that it was opening into a tough period and it would do$110,000. Um, and unfortunately, as I suspected, the parents were focused on giving the kids their um holiday treats and not focused on plucking themselves to the film. So when we're in the middle of the holidays, it does need to be a very special film that's gonna pop out and do well. Um, and the film only brought in 73 grand. Oh, really? 73?

SPEAKER_01 2:45

That's awful.

Exit 8 And The Loop Thriller

SPEAKER_02 2:46

Yeah, that's a that's a tough day at the office for that film, unfortunately. Um look, I think I think the film might have a little bit of legs post-holidays. As I said, we're gonna get that adult and that um senior citizen sort of um crowd coming back into the cinema. And I think that that might have a little bit more legs, but unfortunately, I'd say the film's pretty much done its dash in the eyes of most people. So there's a new movie called Exit 8. Uh, have you seen the trailer for that, Body Charts Break?

SPEAKER_01 3:15

No, I haven't actually.

SPEAKER_02 3:16

Okay. Well, look, this is um one of these movies, again, it's based on a video game, sort of like the movie Iron Line that came out. Yeah, yeah. And it's a Japanese film, it's a hit video game, and basically it tells the story of a young man who becomes increasingly desperate when he finds himself stuck and trapped in an endless, sterile, white-tiled subway. He gets on the train, he gets off the train, and suddenly discovers that he can't find his way out of the subway. Now, as he's walking around, he starts to see these clues, um, which has become a set of rules that he has to play by. Rules like do not overlook anything out of the ordinary. If you discover an anomaly, you have to turn back immediately and go back the way you came. Um, and if you don't and you carry on, sorry, if you don't find an anomaly, you carry on, and then you have to leave this sterile, weird world from exit 8, hence the name of the film. Now, this is heralding the start of a couple of these films. We've actually got about three films that are based on YouTube and video games coming up. So this is the first one, and it's rated M. These movies usually get like an R rating, maybe R13 or R um 16, 18. But this is an M-rated psychological thriller, and I think that it's the kind of film that could just break out and do quite well. It looks amazing. I recommend you check the trailer out.

SPEAKER_01 4:41

Okay, it sounds so boring.

Michael Jackson Biopic Buzz

SPEAKER_02 4:44

But that's but I tell you, don't be surprised. Look, check out the trailer, check out the trailer, and we can maybe discuss that next time. But nice and cheap set, no way. Oh, yeah. Well, look, it's all about it's all about being stuck in a in a in a loop, effectively. You know, so yeah, I think it looks really interesting, and I'm I'm keen to catch keen to catch it. The film I think everybody's gonna be watching this weekend is of course the Michael Jackson biopic. Are you a fan of Michael?

SPEAKER_01 5:10

I like the music, yeah. I I try to ignore all the other stuff, but the music, yeah, you've just gotta you've gotta tip your hat, Quincy Jones era, the songs put together with the family. I mean, it's incredible stuff, it really is.

SPEAKER_02 5:23

Yeah, look, um I I can't deny the fact that there were times when I was absolutely into Michael Jackson's still certainly uh some some of his songs. I mean, we're talking 70s and 80s and into the very early 90s, but you know, he really peaked with albums like Thriller and Off the Wall, and then you know, he was just he was the biggest star on the planet. And this movie basically tells you a a portion of the story of his time um in the musical industry. So it's basically tracing his journey from um his time as Leader of the Jackson 5. He was 11 years old as the leader, he started in the industry at I think age five or six, um, and then in the 80s, obviously, he becomes this visionary artist. Uh, you know, he's just so fueled by passion and the pursuit of perfection in this and in being the biggest entertainer in the world and making sure that every show was just perfect. Um, so look, the story's pretty intense. It stars his nephew, Jafar Jackson, as Michael Jackson. Um, it's directed by Anto and Anthony Fakwa Fuqua. Uh he wrote uh and did Training Day, he did the Equalizer series, uh Magnificent Seven. Um, so he's got a really good track record of great film, and it also stars Miles Teller, who was in the um um well he he was in Maverick uh what's it called? Top Gun Maverick. Yeah, Top Gun Maverick, he was in that. Um funnily enough, we're playing Top Gun Maverick again soon. Oh, okay. Yeah, it's the 40th anniversary of um 40th anniversary of Top Gun, so we're doing a double bill coming up.

SPEAKER_01 7:03

Yeah, well I saw I saw Michael Jackson live in concert, and also the radio station I was with at the time, um, he was staying at a hotel opposite the police station on Merrill Drive, and I remember being there with thousands and thousands of people as he rode in the glass elevator up the outside and then waved to people and stood in the window. And it was it was like it was like scenes you'd seen with the Beatles, it was unbelievable.

Devil Wears Prada 2 Hype

SPEAKER_02 7:32

Yeah. Oh, look, I think you know, there was some interesting times in the in that era when we had stars come to this country. Um you don't see it that much anymore, I guess, in a lot of ways, but um, oh man, there was some big stars came in the 80s, and they, you know, they were we were right, they were absolutely um mobbed in some cases. It was real a real mania for for Michael Jackson and people like that. Uh look, I I honestly I loved Michael Jackson, some of his stuff in the mid-80s. Um I think where it started to go wrong for me was when he released Bad. I mean, it was okay. And then of course, they're just beyond that, it just to me it sort of started going a bit sideways. But that 80s stuff, you know, and um that in the 70s, Jackson 5 stuff, that was very much for me. So that's that's a movie we're gonna have a guess on its box office. But because we have two movies back to back, which are huge, I figured it was probably worth you and I discussing this other movie that opens the following week, and that is the Devil Wears Prada 2.

SPEAKER_01 8:34

I think that's gonna be bigger than the Michael movie.

SPEAKER_02 8:36

I I agree. I think that we're gonna see a massive box office, even though things are tough and even though people are tightening their belts. I think the Devil Wears Prada 2 is going to tap into the Barbie audience and is gonna be big. Look, movie stars Emily Blunt, Meryl Streep, Stanley Turcci, and Hathaway. It's 20 years, almost 20, exactly 20 years, since the first one came out. And of course, they're all returning to their um fashionable um roles. This got the same director as the original. It's going from New York to Paris to Italy. It's it's a globetrotting film, this one. Okay. Uh, so I think that it's definitely going to be a solid, solid movie. There's new characters including uh Kerith Branner, who's in it, Justin Thoreau is in it, Lucy Lou is in the movie. Um, and and there'll be a lot of cameos and real people, famous people. Um, it'll be interesting to see whether Merrill Streep bumps into uh Anna Winter. That'll be quite amusing.

SPEAKER_01 9:40

Yeah, yeah. No, I'm I'm looking forward to it. I'll definitely go go see that one because I did like the original movie, it was great.

Opening Week Box Office Predictions

SPEAKER_02 9:46

Yeah, well, I can honestly say again, the marketing for this movie has been very, very impressive. Um and the latest trailer has really um piqued my interest even more so. Um, and I think that that's that's what makes this film uh a potential runaway success. And I mean, I know that we we've got a fundraiser on the opening night, sold out two cinemas for it. So I know that that will be a strong start for for our cinema. And I know that talking to the industry that there's many, many other theatres have got like sold-out sessions for them. That just leads into you know what will be the next big thing. So I'm I'm pretty confident Devil Who's Prada is gonna be our second five million dollar film for this year. So that's that's my current bet. Uh I don't think Michael's got the legs to do it, but we'll see what Devil Who's Prada does. Okay, so uh shall we make a prediction then? Well, Michael, I okay, I'll kick Michael off. Uh I think Michael has an interesting sort of uh and it's gonna be an interesting result. Okay, just so you know, I'm on Rotten Tomatoes at the moment, it's got a 40% critical score, which is very bad for a film, but it has a 96% fan score. And the fans, there's over a thousand fan reviews, and there's only 120 uh critic reviews. So the fans are telling you that they like it, and people who are going and watching it are saying they enjoy it. I'm gonna say$450,000 in it for the opening week.

SPEAKER_01 11:19

I'll be a bit more optimistic. I'll say$600,000.

SPEAKER_02 11:22

$600,000. Okay, cool. Done. Right, Brent, and Devil is Prada, and again, this is where it could get very, very interesting. Um, what what do you you want to have a crack first? Or yeah, sure. I think$1.2 million. 1.2 million. It's a good, solid, strong number from Brent. Folks, if it makes a million dollars in week one, it's it's it's stratospheric in this country. Yeah. Yeah. If you're listening to this from overseas, you're going, hang on, I've got to carry the one. How many, how many pesos is that? Oh, geez, New Zealand dollar, divide that by American. It's like three. But in New Zealand, that is a decent number for opening week. Um, and I I'm actually gonna go over you. I'm gonna say it makes um one point uh three uh million. I think it's got the legs to potentially be an absolute runaway hit. And I wouldn't be surprised if it goes even higher than that.

SPEAKER_01 12:21

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, here's hoping. We need some, we need some a positive movie to start like that, don't we? Yeah, look, absolutely.

French Film Festival And The Road Ahead

SPEAKER_02 12:28

And I think the again, our industry is is swings and roundabouts. You know, we are we are the perpetual roller coaster. You get the highs of the holidays, you get the lows coming out of the holidays, then you wait, you're looking for that next high. And if the high next high is more than say four weeks away, it becomes a bit of a struggle. So for the for the next high to only be another like six, eight days away, that's that's really exciting. And then, of course, that leads us into May. May is a pretty strong month. We've got some good movies coming out. June is a strong month, July is a strong month, and at the end of May around the country, we also kick off the French Film Festival, and that is always good to have that in your back pocket. Uh, tickets went on sale for the French Film Festival uh yesterday. So uh nationwide, if you're into French film, now is the time to start um checking your local cinema out and booking in a French film or two.

SPEAKER_01 13:18

And there are some really great French films you can see as well.

SPEAKER_02 13:21

Absolutely. Oh, look, this year's lineup I would say is probably one of the stronger lineups we've seen. So, yeah, check it out on on uh websites and uh grab your you can get a big booklet of all the stuff that's in most theaters who are carrying it. Have all the booklets, you can take them home, have a good read, and make some good choices.

Wrap Up And Where To Listen

SPEAKER_01 13:36

Excellent. All right, well, we'll see how we go with our predictions in a couple of weeks. Cheers, Ross.

SPEAKER_02 13:41

Cheers, Ben.

SPEAKER_00 13:42

Thanks for listening to Eat Sleep Movie. Repeat, repeat a movie podcast available at Bunsprout, Apple, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.