Box Office Reality Check

A movie can be genuinely fun, get decent reviews, and still face-plant at the box office, and that contradiction kicks off our latest chat. We’re Brent Harbour and Ross Church, and we open with a hard look at Masters of the Universe in New Zealand cinemas, why the numbers stall, and why timing and money anxiety can matter more than nostalgia. Box office results don’t automatically equal quality, but they do reveal what audiences are willing to pay for right now. 

From there, we zoom out to the school holiday movie season and the real-world challenge of cinema programming. Toy Story 5 arrives with full generational momentum and a surprisingly timely premise: toys squaring off against the glow of an electronic device that hijacks playtime. We talk early performance signals, why families plan their spending, and why older titles can vanish fast when new “must-see” kids movies take over the screens. 

We also hit two wildly different examples of how movies find audiences. Obsession shows how a low-budget horror film can explode into a global phenomenon through concept and word of mouth, while Rescued Hearts proves a documentary can sell out when the community is real and the story lands, especially around themes like autism, anxiety, and the human-horse bond. We wrap with our opening-week box office predictions for Minions and Monsters and Toy Story 5, plus a peek at what we’re tracking next. 

If you like smart, practical movie talk with a New Zealand cinema lens, subscribe, share this with a movie friend, and leave a review. What film are you most excited to see during the holidays?

Book your tickets to the movies at Cathay Cinemas Kerikeri here  -   or at Lido Cinema Hamilton here!

Transcript

Day Off That Is Not Off

SPEAKER_00 0:01

Eat, sleep, movie, repeat, repeat. A podcast on all things movies with Brent Harbour and Industry Insider Ross Church.

SPEAKER_03 0:10

G'day Rice, you can now define when having a day off is not having a day off, right?

SPEAKER_01 0:15

Yes, we can. Absolutely. Days off. What what are days off? Sorry, folks. We've just been lamenting about the fact that you take a day off and you spend all day at work. So uh good times.

SPEAKER_03 0:25

He was still at the cinema making popcorn on his day off. That's that's what it has.

SPEAKER_01 0:30

I I wouldn't say it was that exciting, but yeah. Just ruining the place and being told off by the real people who work there. They know what they're doing. Here comes the boss to ruin everything. Yeah, don't let him in the door. Just honestly, I I should not be near the counterfeit. We'll talk about that another time. Okay, hey, let's get on with it, man. Let's let's let's digress.

Welcome And How The Show Works

SPEAKER_01 0:49

Okay, folks, welcome to uh episode 11 of season four of Eat, Sleep, Movie, Repeat. I think this is our like our 76th podcast or something. I've been I know. I can't believe it either. Um, I hope you're enjoying it, folks. Uh I know that um I know people who do listen and they say they do, so yep, yay! Obviously doing something. That's good. Hey, um, okay, well, welcome along. Uh, this is uh wonderful podcast about movies. I'm really off the game now, aren't I? Brought to you by Cafe Cinemas Kerry Kerry and Leto Cinemas Hamilton, your home of fine film from around the world. Uh look, this show is just about new movies that are heading your way. We talk a few things that might interest you. We try and uh keep it very positive. Sometimes I might have a rant, sometimes Brent might even have a rant. Uh, but generally, this is just a very safe space for people who like movies, and so here we go. And of course, every show, at the end of every show, we uh have a prediction on the box office of a New Zealand-released film, and every start of every show we reconcile that

Masters Of The Universe Box Office

SPEAKER_01 1:52

box office. And Brent, do you remember what we did last week?

SPEAKER_03 1:56

Yeah, I I'm a bit scared about this one. Masters of the universe, because I I was just going, you know what? I've watched the trailers, I've tried to get enthused, wasn't for me.

SPEAKER_01 2:05

Yeah, look, um, I want to say hold my beer, but I don't drink. But uh, yeah, you you're you're I think you're on the money. So look, Masters of the Universe, it was rated M, 134 minutes. Um, the story was about uh how the um Prince Adam had been separated for 15 years from his uh sword and his home, and it was reunited with his sword, and he was taken back to this planet called Eternia, where he was going to embrace his true history of being this guy he-man and fight the evil skeletor. And Brent, we were very pessimistic on this film because, you know, for revel reasons. Um, I'm not saying it's Jared Lino, I'm not saying it's Jared Leno. No, but Brent, we were pessimistic uh just because of the economy and a few other things that are going on, and you thought the movie would do $450,000, which is not a lot, but it's not a bad shout for a movie these days. And I actually went lower than that, I took it at 400 grand. Um, now, unfortunately, the film just it look, honestly, it never got out of the blocks.

SPEAKER_03 3:11

Oh, really?

SPEAKER_01 3:12

It never didn't score a goal with the World Cup. It uh it didn't even get a draw. It basically never recovered when it came out of the blocks on the Thursday. And I I'm gonna caveat all that we're about to say by this. The Box Office doesn't actually reflect how good a film is. It's very important, I think people understand that. There are plenty of bad films that make millions and plenty of amazing films that never make any money. Now, this is not an Oscar-winning film by any stretch of the imagination, but it has been getting really well reviewed. Grumpy, angry, nasty reviewers who I actually watch on YouTube and find them really, really over the top about how much of vitriol they will spit on a film. They actually like this film, which I thought was weird. Okay. And so I thought to myself, this film's probably gonna make some money, but unfortunately, it just wasn't there. Now, this is a movie that's like the 80s film Gremlins, it's a fun watch, nothing, it's a check ahead of the door, but nothing could help this film, Brent. Nothing could help it get out of its own way, and it struggled, unfortunately, to just $315,000 in its first week. Okay. For a for a big blockbuster like that, that is that is brutal. And like I said, I I take no pleasure in having this conversation right now because you know, at the end of the day, I want all films to do well, and I want films to make money, and I want people to go enjoy having a night out. But you know what? That is a brutal, brutal result for that film, despite the fact that it's had some positive reviews. And I've spoken to people who've seen it. Uh, I haven't had a chance to see it, yeah. I'm gonna try and watch it this weekend, but they loved it, they said it was really fun, and it took them back to the 80s and the 90s when they were what you know, they they enjoyed it. They were mostly blokes our age, you know, and and and their kids. And they said they had fun. So why didn't this film make money? I do not know.

SPEAKER_03 5:03

It's it's it's a really hard one because you either were a fan of that kind of stuff, you you know what I mean? It's like it was very specific, and you loved the cheese and you wanted to see the cheese, but it just it didn't hit anywhere for me as a sci-fi fan.

SPEAKER_01 5:18

Yep, and the the film's got good actors in it, it's got a good, it's got good writers. Um, they spend a lot of money just making a nice little film. And but like folks, if you want to see Masters of the Universe uh before it gets dropped like a hot potato, uh, I suggest you get out there now and see it because um in the next week and a half, two weeks, we are going to hit the school holidays, and we're gonna hit the school holidays hard and running. And movies like Masters of the Universe will disappear. So, just about every movie that's in the cinemas right now, you probably want to get out and see it. Um, if you haven't seen it already and you want to see it on a big screen, because a lot of screens are gonna be playing a lot of different school holiday movies, which we're about to talk about. So, sadly, Brent, it is a win for me, and I am genuinely disappointed the film didn't do better. But that is just what it is. I and my personal belief is that families who would have gone and seen this film, they might want to see it in the holidays, but even if it's still showing, but I think they're sitting on their wallets and then waiting for the holidays. So that's just probably more so why the film just didn't get anywhere near where it should have been.

SPEAKER_03 6:21

And there's a lot of choice for the school holidays, too. So, you know, if you're worrying about where you're gonna spend your money, you're gonna have to plan it out.

SPEAKER_01 6:28

Well, this is actually a real problem. This is a real problem because there is so much choice. You actually sit there and go, if you've got three brand new massive titles coming out, do you keep the movie that's now in week four or week five or week six to try and add variety? Are people actually gonna be interested in that because they're just gonna be deering the headlights with these three massive blockbuster kids films

Toy Story 5 And Generational Pull

SPEAKER_01 6:51

that are coming out? And the first one is Toy Story Five. Toy Story Five, yes, and that opened as we speak today. It is opened across New Zealand, and I'm just gonna give you a heads up because I have seen the number. It is well on its way to doing very well. It's well over $100,000. This film already on a Thursday, and it's pretty chilly out there. So, yes, Toy Story 5. The toys are back, Buzz, Lightyear, Woody, Jesse, all the gang are here. Um, and basically it's about how their job as toys is going to be challenged when they come face to face with Lillipad. Now, Lillipad is an electronic device which we all hate. Um, and it's all about how the electronic devices have these their own very disruptive ideas about what's best for children and uh how playtime will now be more like scare at the screen and do nothing time.

SPEAKER_03 7:43

It looks really good though. I mean, I just love the little the subtle little things like Woody having a bald spot and all this crime.

SPEAKER_01 7:52

I see Woody in me a lot. I am Woody. I'm gonna get a two-shirt maid that says I am Woody because I have that same spot.

SPEAKER_03 7:59

Yeah, it's just it's very, very clever.

SPEAKER_01 8:02

Look, um, this is a this is a franchise that is 31 years old now. It has delighted generations effectively of kids. You know, if they really think about it, there's two to three generations now of children who have grown up with a Toy Story movie coming out, and so the people who are um taking their kids, or in some cases their grandkids, are the people who watched it when they were say 12 to 15 years old or younger in some cases, you know. And this is a one of those opportunities where it's a generational story for audiences, and just like Barbie before it, these generational movies sometimes they hit home and they hit home really hard. And um, I saw a really cool review on it, and the guy was basically all he kept saying was the theatre was very dusty. Oh, right, yeah, which is uh yeah, we've all been there, folks. Uh, many many a gentleman has stood in the room and gone, so much dust. I've got the allergies are kicking up. This is a this is a great film. I think it's gonna do really, really well, and we are going to give it a guess on the box office. But but surprise, surprise, we're gonna do two box office guesses this week. And Toy Story is the first one. Alrighty, so we'll talk about that later. But

Obsession Proves Low Budget Wins

SPEAKER_01 9:21

uh the next film that we're actually opening, now this film's actually been out for three weeks already, and we are just bringing it in, and we've spoken about it briefly before, which is the horror sensation movie Obsession. Now, uh I'm talking to the converted. If anybody's listening to this, they've probably already seen it anyway, if you like movies. But basically, Obsession is a small budget horror film that has gone on to absolutely destroy Hollywood in the best way possible by beating films that had, you know, its entire you know, budget as just what they drank for coffee. So it's um it's a story, it's a basic story. A young guy, he's really keen on this girl, he wants to be romantically involved with her, but he just can't bring up the courage to actually ask her on a date, which uh strangely enough seems to be a you know issue that a lot of people still have, trying to just ask a woman out for a date or ask a guy out for a date. Anyway, so he finds this magic shop, he buys this thing called a one wish willow, you snap the willow, you make your wish, so he says, Oh, I just want her to really love me. And that seems really innocuous, right up until the point where she becomes completely psychotic. Right, okay. Everything is a problem. If everything he's not paying her attention, she goes bananas, and it just gets worse and worse and worse. The film was shot on a budget of 700 and I think it was 25,000 American dollars, which wow, about a million dollars, Kiwi. And the film has made 250,000, or sorry, 250 million dollars plus so far worldwide. Wow, that's incredible. That's a good return on investment. Oh, absolutely. You would be just imagine that. Imagine making something $750,000 and then go, oh yeah, well, we made double our money. Fantastic. Oh, we made double our money, oh heck, you know what? We've made double that. Oh, we've made double that now. Oh, oh, it's still making money. Oh, it made more money this week than it did last week. Oh my gosh. It's just unbelievable. And it's still going. It is still going. That film will probably stop at around the $350 million mark. And there are many, many blockbusters that have spent $350 million making the film that have not even recouped that

Rescued Hearts And Event Screenings

SPEAKER_01 11:41

cash. Uh now, the next film I want to talk about uh is a movie that we are showing. Now, this is really weird. This doesn't happen very often, folks. We're showing this exclusively in New Zealand. We're the only cinema showing this. It's a movie called Rescued Hearts. Now, the film has played in New Zealand, but but up until right now, the film has never been theatrically released. It has been done as a a you hire the cinema, you get the movie given to the cinema, you kind of get a group together, and you could watch it as a private event, but you can't buy tickets to it at the theatre. Um, it's never been theatrically released. And it's a movie that is about basically it's a documentary. Um and a customer came to me and said, Hey, I'm heard about this documentary, I'd like to host a screening. And I contacted the people, I said, Look, I need to know more about this, like I always do. Um, and we ended up getting to the point where they said, Look, we couldn't make it justifiably work financially under the model they had. And so I said to them, Well, why don't we release it theatrically? Um, and they said, Yep, yep, give this, give that a go. Uh, surprisingly. And the good news for me was they'd been to New Zealand before Out of America, they've come to this area, they've been to Kerry Kerry, they knew about us a little bit. So it was easy to talk to them and let them know that we were going to look after their baby, which this basically is their baby. Anyway, um, the film is a two-hour documentary. It explores the connection between humans and horses, and it's been inspired by a life-changing moment where a young seven-year-old girl who was diagnosed with autism spoke her first words while interacting with a horse. Uh, the filmmaker uh Dana Crosher and Chrisana Sexton are the two filmmakers, and they went out to uncover this deeper meaning behind uh the you know connection between animals, specifically horses and humans, um, and how they not only uh things like riding for the disabled is based on this. So, you know, it's um not just that connection, but also people who have um, you know, other issues, other life-changing issues and anxiety and stuff, and how they connect with animals and particularly horses, and it can solve their problems um in a way. So, yeah, it's a it's just it's a really interesting documentary. Um, it's about horses and being Kiwis. Uh, there's a lot of people who are into equestrian sport. Um, it talks about um uh, you know, it's it's it's for riding clubs, it's for pony clubs, it's for trekking groups, it's for veterinarians, it's for holistic healers, it's all those things connected. Anyway, uh long story short, um, so we've released this film out. Uh today was our first screening and it sold out. Oh, great. Yeah, which is fantastic. So um tomorrow is our second screening, but that's already sold out.

SPEAKER_03 14:28

Oh, okay.

SPEAKER_01 14:29

So we're rolling now on to our third day, um, and that's about half sold out. So this there's definitely an audience for this. It's taken a heck of a lot of work from our end to make sure that we get the messaging out there that people know this film exists. Um, and it actually worked really well because another cinema has actually started to screen it or just just screened it um within the last few days because they found out that we were doing it and they managed to get hold of the filmmakers. But this is very much a template for something that I'm really keen on is how we work with filmmakers to get their films onto screens if they've never done it before and they've never worked within the idea of actually getting a movie to a cinema. Um, but these people are experienced people, they've just never done this part of it. Uh, and they are using this experience as the potential template to see this movie move on. So um I've already had people contacting me from around the country saying, Can I get this to show at my cinema? Um, I've said, Yeah, you can contact them direct, but if you wait a little bit, it might come to your theatre anyway and just be a you know, you can just buy a ticket to go and see it. So hopefully that'll work. Um, but yeah, look, Rescued Hearts, uh, it's an interesting film. We've got people who are very, very keen to see it. So um, yeah, we'll see how that goes, and hopefully we can get that cinema, uh, sorry, that film to be expanded out across New Zealand.

SPEAKER_03 15:52

That'll be good. As someone who grew up around horses, I know I know uh the power of them actually. They're they are incredible animals. Yes, they really are.

SPEAKER_01 15:59

And me too. I I grew up on a farm. Uh our family literally built the next door pony club. Um, my sister was a rider, my mum was a rider, I rode uh a horse for a while, but unfortunately, I'm actually deadly allergic to horses, as it turns out.

SPEAKER_03 16:14

Oh, oh, that's so yeah.

SPEAKER_01 16:16

So, but I've gotten a lot better in, but I um honestly I've I've forgot photos of me when I used to get alert hit by allergies, and I just looked like freaking um Quasimoto or something. It was not good. Oh, wow. Yeah, okay. Anyway, um, now we're gonna talk about another movie that's coming out, and this is coming out

Minions And Monsters Holiday Forecast

SPEAKER_01 16:33

next week. Um, and this is another kid's film, one of those massive, huge films, which is Minions and Monsters. Yes, yes, and another generational movie based off the minions from the Despicable Me movies.

SPEAKER_03 16:46

A spin-off from Groove, basically.

SPEAKER_01 16:49

Yeah, exactly. And these movies, those movies are what? Say, off top of my head, it's about 15 years old now. So, you know, they're um they're they're going gangbusters. The minions are possibly one of the most popular film series that there has, but everyone has made more money. The last one, I think, was seven million dollars in New Zealand, and I think the last um the last other what's the other one we're doing? The toy story. The last Toy Story was $5 million. So, you know, you've got a $5 million film coming up, you've got a $7 million film coming up, and then two weeks after they have got Milana. So, you know, assuming that uh the economy doesn't go to cuss it, Brent. So the good news is uh minions and monsters. So this is basically about how the minions, again, one of those interesting time zones where they show the minions going through their through time and working with these um various terrible people who they work with until they they meet a monster. They want to they want to work with monsters and they meet a young monster who introduces them to a bunch of other monsters um and in order for them to work for the worst people in the world, effectively. So yeah, I think that looks like a really fun film.

SPEAKER_03 18:01

And they're just silly, the minions, you know. Kids, kids love it because you don't have to understand what they're saying, they're they're like kids themselves. It's just it's a brilliant concept.

SPEAKER_01 18:10

I think that's why most adults like it, because you don't have to understand what's going on. You just look at the bright colours, and yeah, it's the ADHD in me that loves these movies. Yeah, anyway. Um, but yeah, look, absolutely, Minions and Monsters is gonna be another big one. And of course, we're rolling into that school holiday period because that following week when Minions opens up, there's uh the new Supergirl movie coming out as well. And this is why I say, you know, we've got so many movies, Brand, so many big, big movies. It's gonna be very hard to roll some of these older movies, older kids movies over, you know, like um what we talked about before with uh poor old um Masters of the Universe. I think that uh that it just won't be any screen space for those movies when you've got all these all these huge new popular shiny things that are coming. So yeah, it's really

Programming Choices And The Long Odyssey

SPEAKER_01 18:57

interesting.

SPEAKER_03 18:57

And I saw Disclosure Day this week. Uh will that be around during the school holidays, do you think? Will it last?

SPEAKER_01 19:02

I think disclosure day will play on. Um it's doing okay. Uh it's but the the day will be definitely split. What tends to happen within cinemas, uh, depending on how many screens you have. I mean, the if you've got a 10-screen cinema or eight-screen cinema, it's not as a big an issue than say a two or three or four-screen cinema. You uh how we do it was we divide our day into kids during the day and mid-afternoon, adults in the night. So we won't probably play disclosure day during the day, but we will probably play at one of our last sessions at night with obsession, it feels like that. Um, Supergirl will probably get a mid-afternoon and an evening, but minions will be all the mornings and the early to mid-afternoons. Um, and maybe there'll be one evening um session, sort of five-ish for for kids. Because at the end of the day, you don't want to be bringing young kids to the movies when they're gonna get exhausted and they've had a busy day, and because they fall asleep halfway through the film or they get bored. So we always try and tailor that every movie to that kind of um demographic that's coming. But yeah, I think disclosure day will still be playing on. There will be some other films, older films that will still be playing on. But again, the smaller the cinema, the less likely you're gonna have um a huge amount of variety when you're trying to deal with this many new films coming in. I mean, that's not the end of it, too. There is some another big, big film coming in. Um, and when I say it's big, it's super, super long. And it's called The Odyssey. And when the Odyssey comes in, that is like three and a half hours long on a screen.

SPEAKER_03 20:31

No, I'm not doing that. I'm not honestly, I'm not doing it. That's just uh why why, Christopher Nolan? Why? Yeah, why don't you do it?

SPEAKER_01 20:40

It's an Odyssey, but it doesn't have to be an Odyssey to watch. Yeah, why did why don't you just split into two movies? Odyssey part one, Odyssey Part Two. That's how you make some of the money, Chris.

SPEAKER_02 20:49

We got no attention span. No attention span these days. I can't sit there. I can fly to Sydney in three and a half hours. I'm not gonna sit there.

SPEAKER_01 20:58

If the film takes less time, more time to watch than it does to if you get on a plane, you start watching that film, you don't see the end of it by the time you get to where you're going, the film is too long. Yeah, so Chris, what are you doing? Yes, okay. Tick I've taken no bread, but dear Christopher.

SPEAKER_03 21:13

Do the half screening for me, then I'll come back a week later and show me the other half.

SPEAKER_01 21:17

Oh dear, that's terrible. Um, and uh look, uh another little useless piece of information

Indie Films And Festival Momentum

SPEAKER_01 21:23

for you. Uh so next week I'm attending a um little conference down in Auckland, which will be nice. Um, catching up with a lot of the studios uh or the independent studios who bring us some of these really cool little films. Um, Obsession was brought to us by Rialto, which is you know one of the indie distributors. Uh, they are laughing all of the way to the bank, those guys, at the moment. Thanks very much, Obsession. Um, but you know, we're gonna see some of the good stuff that's coming up through the rest of the year from the independence. I mean, we all know what's coming from Disney, we all know what's coming from um, you know, Universal, but knowing what's coming from those other indie. Guys, is really really important. I think we talked about a dog a dog show last week. Yeah, yeah. So that that's an independent distribution film. And you know, it's it's just one of those things where you really want to know about those little gems that come out that you might overlook because you're too busy focusing on the big bright shiny Hollywood objects that sometimes come down the pipeline. Um, and you really, you know, the French and uh French film festival that's still going. We've got one more week at adding out going into it now. That uh most of those films are independently released and they will um definitely be bringing some of those back. We're planning on bringing some of those back straight after the festival because um there's been some amazing films. Uh I've been told by so many of my customers that it is the best festival so far. So that's yeah, it's a real um real good result, actually. We're very, very pleased with how that movie, that movie festival is just growing, and more and more people are keen to come and see it. So that's that's great, yeah.

Week One Box Office Predictions

SPEAKER_01 23:01

All right, well, should we crack up with some predictions then, Brent? Right, okay. We'll do minions and monsters first, and again, uh, because there's no data on that for either of us, so um minions and monsters. What do you reckon, Brent? Week one. Week one, one point three million. That is probably a good number. Uh it's tricky. I'm actually I'm actually gonna go slightly over you, which uh I'm I'm almost regretting the idea, but I'm gonna go $1.4 million. I think it's yeah, I think I think Minions is going to fight with Moana to be the highest grossing film of the holidays. There's always a flight, there's always one, usually there's one film that just that destroys all. I would have thought that would have been Moana, but something in me is saying that it's gonna be a lot tighter than we really think it will be. Although I'll probably be completely wrong, as I generally am. Uh okay, so Brent, now Toy Story 2. Sorry, Toy Story 3, Toy Story 4, Toy Story 5, let's do Toy Story 5.

SPEAKER_03 23:58

Um It's off to a good start, you say, anyway, so yeah.

SPEAKER_01 24:01

Yeah, well, Toy Story 5, because we are in the fact that we already know that it's done very well today. So here's the heads up for all people playing at home. The film currently, as I sit here, has done $141,000.

SPEAKER_03 24:16

Right, so I'm going to say 1.6 million.

SPEAKER_01 24:22

I think it's gonna I don't think it's gonna get that high. I think it's it would if it rained, and I don't see rain on the horizon. I think the film, uh what I said $1.4, I would say it's gonna be about $1.2 million. But again, I'm happy to be wrong. Um, you know, I if it makes more great, if it makes a little bit less, so be it. But yeah, we'll see what happens. Now, in the next show, Brent, our next show, after we reconcile everything and we talk about movies, we're gonna do two things. One, we're gonna try and guess how much money Marana's gonna make. And the good news is by the time we get to that show, we'll have a really good idea of how this went. And Marana, the difference with Moana is it opens in the holidays, not outside. So it's got a really good opportunity to make a lot more money. Um, assuming again that there are no more wars, the things get better, people can afford to put food on the table, the power bills don't go up, etc. etc. etc. Uh, and the second thing we're gonna do is we're actually gonna recap the wins and the losses and our thoughts on the first six months of uh 2026 movies. Okay, sounds good. Yeah. So we'll talk about those movies and we'll um obviously we'll relive our failures and we'll really relive our successes as we go through. And that should be a little bit fun.

SPEAKER_03 25:41

All right, we'll do that in the next episode.

SPEAKER_00 25:43

Cheers, bro.

SPEAKER_01 25:44

Cheers, buddy.

SPEAKER_00 25:45

Thanks for listening to Eat Sleep Movie. Repeat, repeat a movie podcast available at Bug Sprout, Apple, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.